1031 Beck

Fernwood, MS 39648

$72,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 318 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $894/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $279/mo
• Annual: $3,348/yr
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.61%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($894 rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Pike School District (rural): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #105 of 130 in MS (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.