315 W Hopi Dr

Holbrook, AZ 86025

$164,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 931 sqft · Built 1915 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,175/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,142/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (28.7% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Holbrook Unified District (4389) (town): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #185 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hulet Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 350 students, 65% FRL); Holbrook Junior High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #147 of 218 statewide, top 69%, 347 students, 83% FRL); Holbrook High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #232 of 381 statewide, top 63%, 660 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.