315 W Hopi Dr · Holbrook, AZ 86025

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 931 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1915 7,405 sqft lot $177/sqft · 44% above area Est $172k · at est. ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property - 3 buildings. Home, Apartment and Barber/Beauty Shop with a fenced in yard. Downtown Holbrook

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 110 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Holbrook Unified District (4389) (town): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #185 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hulet Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 350 students, 65% FRL); Holbrook Junior High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #147 of 218 statewide, top 69%, 347 students, 83% FRL); Holbrook High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #232 of 381 statewide, top 63%, 660 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $117,500 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,896
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -4.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
318 W Buffalo St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	978 (+5%)	4mo	$170,000	$174	74
192 N 7th St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	911 (-2%)	6mo	$165,000	$181	54
207 W Hampshire St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	874 (-6%)	20mo	$170,000	$195	49
153 N 2Nd St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,059 (+14%)	23mo	$139,000	$131	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $62,131
• Equity at exit: $125,616

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $184,670
• Equity at exit: $249,670

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86025

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,295

Max offer price $148,085

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-49	+0% $-95	+5% $-142	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-142	+0% $-95	+5% $-49	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-53	base $-95	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 N 1st Ave Unit 406 Holbrook, AZ	3.0	1.0	1106	$1,175	$1.06	15d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $164,900 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $164,900 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 89 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 88 DOM
19. 2026-03-03
    listed $185,000 Active
20. 2021-07-30
    soldstatus $260,000 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Great investment property - 3 buildings. Home, Apartment and Barber/Beauty Shop with a fenced in yard. Downtown Holbrook

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,088 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$4,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$983
• After-tax cash flow: $-160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holbrook Unified District (4389)
• NCES district ID: 0403820
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,437
• Composite: 16.81/100
• National rank: #9153
• State rank: #185 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Holbrook

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holbrook, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 5,189

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.81)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 33% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.03%
• Current HPI: 281.0415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-28.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $185,000 WMMLS
• 2021-07-30 Sold (MLS) $260,000 WMMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,080 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.