4693 Ardmore Ave

Olivehurst, CA 95961

$2,050,000B-

252 bd · 84.0 ba · 9,679 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $30,457/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,750
• Tax + insurance: −$3,417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,396
• Net cashflow: $9,894/mo
• Annual: $118,727/yr
• Cap rate: 12.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.68%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $574,000

Investor read

• This is a 12 × 21-bed/7.0-bath units multifamily listed at $2.05M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($119k/yr) — positive. Per door: $824/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $2.05M).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $62k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#679 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $574k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.8% in Olivehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $30,457/mo this rent would consume 408% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.