14865 Kirkwood St

Ripley, CA 92225

$70,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,390/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $614/mo
• Annual: $7,369/yr
• Cap rate: 16.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.60%
• DSCR: 2.67
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,328 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Palo Verde Unified (town): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,133 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruth Brown Elementary (614 students, 88% FRL); Palo Verde High (820 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 64% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: ceiling — Exposed and damaged
• Major: roof — Exposed and damaged
• Major: flooring — Exposed and damaged
• Major: interior walls — Exposed and damaged
• Major: kitchen cabinets — Exposed and missing
• Major: bathroom cabinets — Exposed and missing