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Odessa, TX 79763

$175,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,971 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,331/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$598
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $326/mo
• Annual: $3,917/yr
• Cap rate: 11.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.44%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 396 students, 83% FRL); Bonham Middle (math 9% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 867 students, 65% FRL); Odessa H S (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 3,874 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,331/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 842% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.