10 Harbour Ln Unit 5A

Oyster Bay, NY 11771

$389,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1997 · Condo · Pending · 207 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,181/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$648
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,104/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $318k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#436 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oyster Bay-East Norwich Central School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #120 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt School (325 students, 19% FRL); Oyster Bay Middle School (217 students, 19% FRL); Oyster Bay High School (math 63% / reading 68%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 415 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $274k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.