10 Harbour Ln Unit 5A · Oyster Bay, NY 11771

$389,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 207 Days on market

Built 1997

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful First Floor, One Bedroom, Co-op At Oyster Bay's Top Of The Harbour. Spacious And Bright Open Floor Plan Leading to a Private Patio, Overlooking A Serene Greenbelt Yard Area. Close to Oyster Bay Town Shops, Beach/Park, Train, School, Quaint Restaurants. Maintenance includes: Taxes, Heat, Water, Landscaping, Parking, Snow Removal and Garbage Removal., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

Key facts

• Peaceful yard
• Close to train
• Private patio

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• PEACEFUL YARD
• CLOSE TO TOWN SHOPS
• CLOSE TO BEACH
• CLOSE TO PARK
• CLOSE TO TRAIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#436 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oyster Bay-East Norwich Central School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #120 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt School (325 students, 19% FRL); Oyster Bay Middle School (217 students, 19% FRL); Oyster Bay High School (math 63% / reading 68%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 415 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $274k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,099 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-74,152
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-78,753
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11771

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,835/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,403

Max offer price $363,632

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $-41	+0% $-175	+5% $-310	+10% $-444
Rent	-10% $-427	-5% $-301	+0% $-175	+5% $-50	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-76	base $-175	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75 Maxwell Ave Apt B Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.0	836	$3,000	$3.59	44d	1	0.28mi
46 Maxwell Ave Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.5	850	$3,300	$3.88	44d	1	0.32mi
21 Audrey Ave Unit D Oyster Bay, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$2,400	$4.00	23d	1	0.38mi
108 South St Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.0	855	$4,150	$4.85	2d	1	0.38mi
108 South St Unit D Oyster Bay, NY	1.0	1.0	663	$3,150	$4.75	23d	1	0.38mi
75 South St Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,975	$3.72	25d	1	0.44mi
600 Pine Hollow Rd East Norwich, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$3,150	$3.15	0d	25	1.00mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingsnow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-01
   historical
3. 2026-01-08
   price $389,000
4. 2025-10-10
   price $399,000
5. 2025-08-06
   listed $429,000 Active
6. 2023-10-23
   soldstatus $274,000 Closed 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Beautiful First Floor, One Bedroom, Co-op At Oyster Bay's Top Of The Harbour. Spacious And Bright Open Floor Plan Leading to a Private Patio, Overlooking A Serene Greenbelt Yard Area. Close to Oyster Bay Town Shops, Beach/Park, Train, School, Quaint Restaurants. Maintenance includes: Taxes, Heat, Water, Landscaping, Parking, Snow Removal and Garbage Removal., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

7. 2023-09-15
   status Pending 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Beautiful First Floor, One Bedroom, Co-op At Oyster Bay's Top Of The Harbour. Spacious And Bright Open Floor Plan Leading to a Private Patio, Overlooking A Serene Greenbelt Yard Area. Close to Oyster Bay Town Shops, Beach/Park, Train, School, Quaint Restaurants. Maintenance includes: Taxes, Heat, Water, Landscaping, Parking, Snow Removal and Garbage Removal., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

8. 2023-08-07
   listed $299,000 Active 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Beautiful First Floor, One Bedroom, Co-op At Oyster Bay's Top Of The Harbour. Spacious And Bright Open Floor Plan Leading to a Private Patio, Overlooking A Serene Greenbelt Yard Area. Close to Oyster Bay Town Shops, Beach/Park, Train, School, Quaint Restaurants. Maintenance includes: Taxes, Heat, Water, Landscaping, Parking, Snow Removal and Garbage Removal., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$5,835
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,054
• − Management: −$3,054
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$8,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,117
• After-tax cash flow: $14/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oyster Bay-East Norwich Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622290
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $100,262
• Composite: 62.11/100
• National rank: #710
• State rank: #120 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oyster Bay

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #7650

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oyster Bay, NY
• City population: 10,173
• Population (ZIP): 10,173

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.23%
• Current HPI: 255.4961
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+30.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Listed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-23 Sold (MLS) $274,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-07 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid