80 Ellwood Pl

Cheektowaga, NY 14225

$189,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Built 1943 · Townhouse · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $536/mo
• Annual: $6,435/yr
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.16%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $536 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Cleveland Hill Union Free School District (urban): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cleveland Hill Elementary School (math 27% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,569 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 646 students, 63% FRL); Cleveland Hill Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 298 students, 64% FRL); Cleveland Hill High School (math 87% / reading 75%, grade A, #485 of 1,100 statewide, top 45%, 385 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $189k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,566/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 991% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.