22129 W Dixileta Dr

Wittmann, AZ 85361

$549,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-782/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $153,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $549k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-782/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $537k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $400k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#326 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $549k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Wittmann — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.