22129 W Dixileta Dr · Wittmann, AZ 85361

$549,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2004 1.02 ac lot $202/sqft · 70% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 plus acres with home- move in ready! Seller offering $10,000 for buyers closing costs at COE !!! This well maintained home features 3 bedrooms plus an optional 4th bedroom/office & 2 baths/ The Primary suite includes an ensuite bath, walk-in closet, soaking tub & separate shower. Stay comfortable year round with multiple heat/cool systems. including two 3-ton package heat pumps and mini-splits throughout the home. New roof 2020, new water heater 2023. Enjoy outdoor living with oversized concrete front & rear porches, a private kitchen patio with fire table and stools included. also a Hot Tub just outside the primary bedroom. Backyard also has a pergola with power & water, BBQ pit, horseshoe pit/solar lighting. 2 Storage

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 120 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-782/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $537k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Wittmann — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#326 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $549k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,900 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,900
• List price: $549,000
• Delta: 68.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22615 W Montanoso Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,442 (-10%)	2mo	$320,000	$131	43
29119 N 225th Ave	0.52mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,433 (-11%)	22mo	$387,000	$159	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $294,562
• Equity at exit: $494,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $870,122
• Equity at exit: $1,066,586

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,399/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,081

Max offer price $537,493

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23175 W Skinner Rd Wittmann, AZ	5.0	2.0	2451	$3,999	$1.63	1d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $549,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $579,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $579,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $579,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $579,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $579,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $579,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $579,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $579,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $579,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-02-18
    listed $599,000 Active 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    2 plus acres with home- move in ready! Seller offering $10,000 for buyers closing costs at COE !!! This well maintained home features 3 bedrooms plus an optional 4th bedroom/office & 2 baths/ The Primary suite includes an ensuite bath, walk-in closet, soaking tub & separate shower. Stay comfortable year round with multiple heat/cool systems. including two 3-ton package heat pumps and mini-splits throughout the home. New roof 2020, new water heater 2023. Enjoy outdoor living with oversized concrete front & rear porches, a private kitchen patio with fire table and stools included. also a Hot Tub just outside the primary bedroom. Backyard also has a pergola with power & water, BBQ pit, horseshoe pit/solar lighting. 2 Storage

15. 2017-11-30
    status Pending 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Beautiful Triple Wide Manufactured, Palm Harbor Home in Wittmann. 4 bed/2 bath. Lg kitchen with island. Stainless steel appl, pull out shelves and huge pantry. Walk-out porch from the kitchen. Beautiful 2 way gas fireplace from the living room to family room. Trey ceiling. Ceiling fans thru-out. Multi unit A/C. Dual pane windows. Nice M/B with on-suite bathroom with double vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. Also a door to rear patio. One bedroom used as office with built-in desk, cabinet and window seat. Still room for a twin bed. Carpet in bedrooms. Wood floors in office, living/dining area and hallway.Tile in Fam Rm, kit, bath. Covered rear patio, 69 x 12. Zoned horse prop. on 1.25 acres fully fenced. Home is on a stem wall. Well Water and shared well. RV Hook-up

16. 2017-11-30
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Beautiful Triple Wide Manufactured, Palm Harbor Home in Wittmann. 4 bed/2 bath. Lg kitchen with island. Stainless steel appl, pull out shelves and huge pantry. Walk-out porch from the kitchen. Beautiful 2 way gas fireplace from the living room to family room. Trey ceiling. Ceiling fans thru-out. Multi unit A/C. Dual pane windows. Nice M/B with on-suite bathroom with double vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. Also a door to rear patio. One bedroom used as office with built-in desk, cabinet and window seat. Still room for a twin bed. Carpet in bedrooms. Wood floors in office, living/dining area and hallway.Tile in Fam Rm, kit, bath. Covered rear patio, 69 x 12. Zoned horse prop. on 1.25 acres fully fenced. Home is on a stem wall. Well Water and shared well. RV Hook-up

17. 2017-11-30
    soldstatus $210,000

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Beautiful Triple Wide Manufactured, Palm Harbor Home in Wittmann. 4 bed/2 bath. Lg kitchen with island. Stainless steel appl, pull out shelves and huge pantry. Walk-out porch from the kitchen. Beautiful 2 way gas fireplace from the living room to family room. Trey ceiling. Ceiling fans thru-out. Multi unit A/C. Dual pane windows. Nice M/B with on-suite bathroom with double vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. Also a door to rear patio. One bedroom used as office with built-in desk, cabinet and window seat. Still room for a twin bed. Carpet in bedrooms. Wood floors in office, living/dining area and hallway.Tile in Fam Rm, kit, bath. Covered rear patio, 69 x 12. Zoned horse prop. on 1.25 acres fully fenced. Home is on a stem wall. Well Water and shared well. RV Hook-up

18. 2017-10-18
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Beautiful Triple Wide Manufactured, Palm Harbor Home in Wittmann. 4 bed/2 bath. Lg kitchen with island. Stainless steel appl, pull out shelves and huge pantry. Walk-out porch from the kitchen. Beautiful 2 way gas fireplace from the living room to family room. Trey ceiling. Ceiling fans thru-out. Multi unit A/C. Dual pane windows. Nice M/B with on-suite bathroom with double vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. Also a door to rear patio. One bedroom used as office with built-in desk, cabinet and window seat. Still room for a twin bed. Carpet in bedrooms. Wood floors in office, living/dining area and hallway.Tile in Fam Rm, kit, bath. Covered rear patio, 69 x 12. Zoned horse prop. on 1.25 acres fully fenced. Home is on a stem wall. Well Water and shared well. RV Hook-up

19. 2017-08-10
    listed $212,000 Active 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Beautiful Triple Wide Manufactured, Palm Harbor Home in Wittmann. 4 bed/2 bath. Lg kitchen with island. Stainless steel appl, pull out shelves and huge pantry. Walk-out porch from the kitchen. Beautiful 2 way gas fireplace from the living room to family room. Trey ceiling. Ceiling fans thru-out. Multi unit A/C. Dual pane windows. Nice M/B with on-suite bathroom with double vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. Also a door to rear patio. One bedroom used as office with built-in desk, cabinet and window seat. Still room for a twin bed. Carpet in bedrooms. Wood floors in office, living/dining area and hallway.Tile in Fam Rm, kit, bath. Covered rear patio, 69 x 12. Zoned horse prop. on 1.25 acres fully fenced. Home is on a stem wall. Well Water and shared well. RV Hook-up

20. 2004-02-03
    soldstatus $25,000
21. 2001-07-09
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,623 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,224/yr (+$185/mo · 159.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,399
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,839
• − Management: −$3,839
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$10,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,534
• After-tax cash flow: $1,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Wittmann

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #25597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C+ Employment C- Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+768.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $599,000 ARMLS
• 2017-11-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2017-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-30 Sold (MLS) $210,000 ARMLS
• 2017-10-18 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-08-10 Listed $212,000 ARMLS
• 2004-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,399 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.