4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,100 sqft ·
Built 1976
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,308
Tax + insurance
−$170
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$420
Net cashflow
$103/mo
Annual
$1,233/yr
Cap rate
6.79%
Cash-on-cash
1.77%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$69,813
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (19.8% below list).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $200k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#235 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Maryville Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #301 of 676 statewide, top 48%, 338 students, 70% FRL); Zoneton Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #175 of 217 statewide, top 81%, 354 students, 64% FRL); North Bullitt High School (math 30% / reading 28%, grade F, #150 of 254 statewide, top 59%, 1,148 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $77k; list at $249k implies a 223% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Hillview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KWM93N21WX28FS
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29