45800 45800 Challenger Way #279

Lancaster, CA 93535

$191,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,821/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,002
• Tax + insurance: −$318
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $909/mo
• Annual: $10,904/yr
• Cap rate: 12.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.39%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $53,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $191k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $909 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $191k).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Linda Verde Elementary (657 students, 88% FRL); Piute Middle (731 students, 96% FRL); Antelope Valley High (1,558 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 72% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1178 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,821/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.