45800 45800 Challenger Way #279 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$191,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 136 Days on market

Est $152k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to move in! This mobile home offers an upgraded kitchen, bathrooms and recently painted. It offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Come view this mobile home, you won't be disappointed!

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Listed 135 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property updated/remodeled; Located in a family park
• Financial info: Month-to-month land lease
• HOA & community: Brierwood Estates community; Association amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, playground, basketball court, tennis, community barbecue, guest parking, common RV parking, on-site property management, and a multipurpose recreation room; Association pet rules apply; 308 units in the complex

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking available; Two covered parking spaces; One additional open space (total 3 parking spaces); Driveway with concrete surface and driveway gate; Community garage
• Security: Gated community with guarded entry; Exterior security lights; Smoke detectors and fire & smoke detection system; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Water meter on property
• Home design: Manufactured double patio home; Single-story
• Construction: Manufactured home construction; Insulated doors
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches with awning; Enclosed and covered patio areas; Front and back yard with paved street access; Exterior security lights; Chain link fence; Two sheds on the property; Desert view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas cooktop and gas range/oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Island; Granite counters and other countertop surfaces
• Bedrooms: At least one main-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Remodeled baths with shower and tub and separate shower stall options
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Ground-level entry with steps; Mini blinds, drapes/curtains, and window blinds; Ceiling fan; Garbage disposal; Hood fan; Recirculated and vented exhaust fans; Water filter; Water line to refrigerator; Cable TV
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room and indoor laundry area; Washer and dryer present; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $191k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $904 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $191k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,815/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.29%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,400
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45800 Challenger Way #74	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-5%)	7mo	$136,900	$120	85
45800 Challenger Way #171	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	6mo	$173,000	$164	74
45800 Challenger Way Way #9	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+4%)	18mo	$165,000	$132	73
45800 Challenger Way #10	0.02mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	14mo	$70,000	$63	69
45800 Challenger Way #225	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	9mo	$135,000	$100	66
1301 E Avenue I #348	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	1mo	$159,000	$127	62
45800 Challenger Way #212	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	16mo	$169,000	$126	61
45800 Challenger Way #75	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	21mo	$175,000	$130	57
1301 E I Ave #92	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	21mo	$149,999	$120	45
1301 E Avenue I #240	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-12%)	9mo	$145,000	$137	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $18,800
• Equity at exit: $28,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $60,170
• Equity at exit: $16,514

Cash invested: $53,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,002
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$239 /mo · $2,865/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,671

Max offer price $191,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,036	-5% $970	+0% $904	+5% $838	+10% $772
Rent	-10% $682	-5% $793	+0% $904	+5% $1,015	+10% $1,127
Rate	-1.0pp $1,000	-0.5pp $953	base $904	+0.5pp $855	+1.0pp $804

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,750
• Closing costs: $5,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45402 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1237	$2,775	$2.24	1d	1	0.89mi
45428 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1244	$2,900	$2.33	1d	1	0.91mi
550 E Avenue H14 Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,050	$2.41	1d	1	0.92mi
45426 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,975	$2.06	15d	1	1.10mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	22d	1	1.10mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	4d	1	1.10mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	1d	1	1.16mi
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,500	$2.55	24d	1	1.25mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	1d	1	1.30mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	1d	1	1.34mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	15d	1	1.47mi
44946 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1256	$2,395	$1.91	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $191,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $191,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $191,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $191,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $191,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $191,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $191,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $191,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $191,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $191,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $191,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $191,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $191,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $191,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $194,999
16. 2026-05-09
    price $197,000
17. 2026-04-07
    price $202,000
18. 2026-02-26
    price $213,000
19. 2026-02-02
    listed $220,000 Active
20. 2024-08-20
    soldstatus $184,900 Closed 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Ready to move in! This mobile home offers an upgraded kitchen, bathrooms and recently painted. It offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Come view this mobile home, you won't be disappointed!

21. 2024-05-24
    status Pending 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Ready to move in! This mobile home offers an upgraded kitchen, bathrooms and recently painted. It offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Come view this mobile home, you won't be disappointed!

22. 2024-05-10
    listed $184,900 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Ready to move in! This mobile home offers an upgraded kitchen, bathrooms and recently painted. It offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Come view this mobile home, you won't be disappointed!

23. 2024-02-02
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Experience the epitome of comfort and style in this charming residence! The expansive living room and dining area are filled with natural light, thanks to the abundance of large windows that grace the space. The dining room features a built-in china cabinet, adding both elegance and practicality to your lifestyle. Embrace the warmth of the seasons with six ceiling fans thoughtfully placed throughout the home, ensuring a cool and breezy atmosphere during summer days and nights. Step outside to your private oasis, surrounded by a secure fence that provides both privacy and peace of mind. The grand covered porch invites you to unwind and savor breathtaking evenings. The interior of the house boasts brand new laminate flooring and a new dishwasher has been installed to improve the kitchen's functionality. The washer and dryer are also included. Take advantage of the opportunity to call this place home. Schedule your viewing today and experience the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and contemporary living!

24. 2023-12-29
    status Pending 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Experience the epitome of comfort and style in this charming residence! The expansive living room and dining area are filled with natural light, thanks to the abundance of large windows that grace the space. The dining room features a built-in china cabinet, adding both elegance and practicality to your lifestyle. Embrace the warmth of the seasons with six ceiling fans thoughtfully placed throughout the home, ensuring a cool and breezy atmosphere during summer days and nights. Step outside to your private oasis, surrounded by a secure fence that provides both privacy and peace of mind. The grand covered porch invites you to unwind and savor breathtaking evenings. The interior of the house boasts brand new laminate flooring and a new dishwasher has been installed to improve the kitchen's functionality. The washer and dryer are also included. Take advantage of the opportunity to call this place home. Schedule your viewing today and experience the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and contemporary living!

25. 2023-12-22
    price $83,500 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Experience the epitome of comfort and style in this charming residence! The expansive living room and dining area are filled with natural light, thanks to the abundance of large windows that grace the space. The dining room features a built-in china cabinet, adding both elegance and practicality to your lifestyle. Embrace the warmth of the seasons with six ceiling fans thoughtfully placed throughout the home, ensuring a cool and breezy atmosphere during summer days and nights. Step outside to your private oasis, surrounded by a secure fence that provides both privacy and peace of mind. The grand covered porch invites you to unwind and savor breathtaking evenings. The interior of the house boasts brand new laminate flooring and a new dishwasher has been installed to improve the kitchen's functionality. The washer and dryer are also included. Take advantage of the opportunity to call this place home. Schedule your viewing today and experience the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and contemporary living!

26. 2023-12-21
    listed $85,300 Active 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Experience the epitome of comfort and style in this charming residence! The expansive living room and dining area are filled with natural light, thanks to the abundance of large windows that grace the space. The dining room features a built-in china cabinet, adding both elegance and practicality to your lifestyle. Embrace the warmth of the seasons with six ceiling fans thoughtfully placed throughout the home, ensuring a cool and breezy atmosphere during summer days and nights. Step outside to your private oasis, surrounded by a secure fence that provides both privacy and peace of mind. The grand covered porch invites you to unwind and savor breathtaking evenings. The interior of the house boasts brand new laminate flooring and a new dishwasher has been installed to improve the kitchen's functionality. The washer and dryer are also included. Take advantage of the opportunity to call this place home. Schedule your viewing today and experience the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and contemporary living!

27. 2015-03-28
    historical
28. 2005-07-26
    listed $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,699
• − Property taxes: −$2,865
• − Insurance: −$955
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,703
• − Management: −$2,703
• − Depreciation: −$5,556
• Taxable income: $8,303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,993
• After-tax cash flow: $8,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+413.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $194,999 TheMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $197,000 TheMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $202,000 TheMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $213,000 TheMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $220,000 TheMLS
• 2024-08-20 Sold (MLS) $184,900 AVMLS
• 2024-05-24 Pending — AVMLS
• 2024-05-10 Listed $184,900 AVMLS
• 2024-02-02 Sold (MLS) $80,000 AVMLS
• 2023-12-29 Pending — AVMLS
• 2023-12-22 Price Changed $83,500 AVMLS
• 2023-12-21 Listed $85,300 AVMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2005-07-26 Listed $38,000 AVMLS