4140 Peaceful Valley Rd

New Castle, VA 24127

$89,999C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Active · 562 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $793/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $22/mo
• Annual: $262/yr
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($262/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 562 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Craig County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Craig County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Craig County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 562 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
• Major: kitchen appliances — outdated and in poor condition
• Major: bathroom fixtures — outdated and in poor condition
• Major: exterior railings — missing
• Major: HVAC unit — outdated and in poor condition