4140 Peaceful Valley Rd · New Castle, VA 24127

$89,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Other public records · 562 Days on market

Built 1960 Poor condition 0.50 ac lot $139/sqft · at area comps ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hunting Camp or residence joining National forest. Furnished and ready to move into. with bunk beds will sleep 10. has eat in kitchen, dining area, living room, 1 bed room and a sleeping area, bath room and storage room. Hard wood floors through out. Free standing propane heater and through the wall air condition. Replacement windows. 12 X 20 Cinder block building with cement floors.

Key facts

• Hard wood floors
• Replacement windows
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• HARD WOOD FLOORS
• FREE STANDING PROPANE HEATER
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($262/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Craig County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Craig County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Craig County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 562 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 562 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,341
• List price: $89,999
• Delta: -70.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $50,408
• Equity at exit: $81,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.85×
• Total profit: $147,351
• Equity at exit: $174,848

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24127

• Home prices YoY: 18.6%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $793 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $342/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $765

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,999 Active 562 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 561 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 560 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 559 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 558 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,999 Active 556 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 555 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,999 Active 553 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 552 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,999 Active 551 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,999 Active 550 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,999 Active 547 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 546 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,999 Active 545 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 544 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 543 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,999 Active 542 DOM
18. 2025-06-03
    price $89,999 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Hunting Camp or residence joining National forest. Furnished and ready to move into. with bunk beds will sleep 10. has eat in kitchen, dining area, living room, 1 bed room and a sleeping area, bath room and storage room. Hard wood floors through out. Free standing propane heater and through the wall air condition. Replacement windows. 12 X 20 Cinder block building with cement floors.

19. 2025-06-03
    price $89,999 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Hunting Camp or residence joining National forest. Furnished and ready to move into. with bunk beds will sleep 10. has eat in kitchen, dining area, living room, 1 bed room and a sleeping area, bath room and storage room. Hard wood floors through out. Free standing propane heater and through the wall air condition. Replacement windows. 12 X 20 Cinder block building with cement floors.

20. 2025-01-24
    price $99,900 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Hunting Camp or residence joining National forest. Furnished and ready to move into. with bunk beds will sleep 10. has eat in kitchen, dining area, living room, 1 bed room and a sleeping area, bath room and storage room. Hard wood floors through out. Free standing propane heater and through the wall air condition. Replacement windows. 12 X 20 Cinder block building with cement floors.

21. 2025-01-24
    price $99,900 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Hunting Camp or residence joining National forest. Furnished and ready to move into. with bunk beds will sleep 10. has eat in kitchen, dining area, living room, 1 bed room and a sleeping area, bath room and storage room. Hard wood floors through out. Free standing propane heater and through the wall air condition. Replacement windows. 12 X 20 Cinder block building with cement floors.

22. 2024-12-10
    listed $106,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Hunting Camp or residence joining National forest. Furnished and ready to move into. with bunk beds will sleep 10. has eat in kitchen, dining area, living room, 1 bed room and a sleeping area, bath room and storage room. Hard wood floors through out. Free standing propane heater and through the wall air condition. Replacement windows. 12 X 20 Cinder block building with cement floors.

23. 2024-12-04
    listed $106,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Hunting Camp or residence joining National forest. Furnished and ready to move into. with bunk beds will sleep 10. has eat in kitchen, dining area, living room, 1 bed room and a sleeping area, bath room and storage room. Hard wood floors through out. Free standing propane heater and through the wall air condition. Replacement windows. 12 X 20 Cinder block building with cement floors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $342 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $738 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 116.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$342
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$761
• − Management: −$761
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$1,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$302
• After-tax cash flow: $564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. The kitchen, bathroom, exterior, and HVAC system are in poor condition and need major repairs. Updating these areas would significantly increase the property's value for both resale and rental purposes.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen appliances — outdated and in poor condition
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and in poor condition
• Major exterior railings — missing
• Major HVAC unit — outdated and in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value
• Both exterior updates — updating the exterior would increase both resale and rental value
• Both HVAC replacement — replacing the HVAC unit would increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen appliances · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior railings · missing	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC unit · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both exterior updates — updating the exterior would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — replacing the HVAC unit would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Craig County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101020
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,848
• Composite: 46.33/100
• National rank: #2469
• State rank: #83 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #23547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,184

Population outlook (Craig County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,253 people
• By 2030: 5,208 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 4,949 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 4,489 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 3,379 · -35.7%
• By 2100: 2,293 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Craig

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.7) · D 17.4% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.7 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+57.4 2012: R+34.8 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.92%
• Current HPI: 223.1666
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $89,999 NRVMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $89,999 MLSRV
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $99,900 NRVMLS
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $99,900 MLSRV
• 2024-12-10 Listed $106,000 NRVMLS
• 2024-12-04 Listed $106,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $342 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.