8430 Highway 89

Allentown, FL 32570

$259,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,645 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,984/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-39/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-39/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (23.7% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#882 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chumuckla Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 367 students, 47% FRL); Santa Rosa Adult School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #560 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 149 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 36% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $220k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Allentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.