1050 Reserve Rd #3

West Seneca, NY 14224

$144,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 978 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,584/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$263
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-96/mo
• Annual: $-1,158/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (11.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $128k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Orchard Park Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #158 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.