9193 NW Germantown Rd

Portland, OR 97231

$349,990D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · Built 2008 · Townhouse · Active · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,528/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$992
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$741
• Net cashflow: $-624/mo
• Annual: $-7,486/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $97,997

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-624 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (25.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Skyline Elementary School (215 students, 13% FRL); Da Vinci Middle School (434 students, 34% FRL); Lincoln High School (1,525 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools average 19% FRL vs 37% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.3% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.