9193 NW Germantown Rd

Portland, OR 97231

$349,990B

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · Built 2008 · Townhouse · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,526/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$992
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,160
• Net cashflow: $955/mo
• Annual: $11,458/yr
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.69%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $97,997

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $955 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $350k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $318k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Skyline Elementary School (215 students, 13% FRL); Da Vinci Middle School (434 students, 34% FRL); Lincoln High School (1,525 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools average 19% FRL vs 37% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 61d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.3% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,526/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.