9193 NW Germantown Rd · Portland, OR
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $498 – $926
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 90°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 9/10 · Severe
- Unhealthy air days now
- 12 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 12 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +14.0/15.0
- Schools +4.7/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Cash flow +3.6/30.0
- 1% rule +3.6/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$349,990
9193 NW Germantown Rd · Portland, OR 97231
2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · Townhouse
· 191 Days on market
Built 2008
1-car garage
$161/sqft
· 14% below area
Est $409k · 14% under
$992/mo HOA · 33% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Fall in love with this beautiful, bright townhome with sprawling river views! Offering a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle in a quiet, private community among the trees. The spacious living room features a cozy gas fireplace and a wall of windows with views of the iconic St. Johns Bridge. You will love the large windows, generously sized rooms, high ceilings, and openness throughout the home. The well-appointed kitchen with eating area opens to the formal dining room. From there, step out to your private patio for enjoying spring sunrises and sunsets. Two primary bedrooms, one on the main level and one on the lower level. Each with a private attached bathroom and walk-in closet.
Key facts
- Attached bathroom
- Gas fireplace
- Private patio
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (42.9% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (14.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $200k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
- Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Skyline Elementary School (215 students, 13% FRL); Da Vinci Middle School (434 students, 34% FRL); Lincoln High School (1,525 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools average 19% FRL vs 37% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
Recommended offer
$199,731
(42.9% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.86% ✗
- Cap rate
- 2.73%
- Cash-on-cash
- -12.72%
- DSCR
- 0.43
- GRM
- 9.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $408,843
- List price
- $349,990
- Delta
- -14.40%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 9 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8229 N Edison St | 1.07mi | 3/3.0 (+1) | 2,160 (-1%) | 3mo | $549,900 | $255 | 56 |
| 6920 N Charleston Ave | 1.08mi | 3/3.0 (+1) | 2,243 (+3%) | 4mo | $486,000 | $217 | 52 |
| 8318 N Edison St | 1.03mi | 2/3.0 | 1,946 (-11%) | 12mo | $419,000 | $215 | 37 |
| 8310 N Edison St | 1.04mi | 2/3.0 | 1,906 (-13%) | 9mo | $434,000 | $228 | 36 |
| 6976 N Charleston Ave | 1.08mi | 3/4.0 (+1) | 1,874 (-14%) | 21mo | $599,900 | $320 | 15 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -39.6%
- Equity multiple
- -0.25×
- Total profit
- $-122,195
- Equity at exit
- $52,185
10-year hold
- IRR
- -59.7%
- Equity multiple
- -0.93×
- Total profit
- $-188,906
- Equity at exit
- $30,261
Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (CITY)
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State Oregon
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City Portland
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+39
Mandatory relocation for no-cause evictions; rent increase notice 90 days.
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 1 active
- Median asking
- $325,000 ($174/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 277 d
- This list price
- 100% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +7.6% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 97231
- Home prices YoY
- -31.9%
- Active inventory
- 119
- Price-to-rent
- 9.7×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $3,003 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,835
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$437 /mo · $5,250/yr
- Insurance
- −$146
- HOA
- −$992
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$631
- Net cashflow
- $-1,038
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$4,317
Max offer price
$199,731
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-797 | -5% $-917 | +0% $-1,038 | +5% $-1,159 | +10% $-1,280 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-1,276 | -5% $-1,157 | +0% $-1,038 | +5% $-920 | +10% $-801 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-862 | -0.5pp $-949 | base $-1,038 | +0.5pp $-1,129 | +1.0pp $-1,221 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $87,498
- Closing costs
- $10,500
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 16 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NW Roseway Ave Portland, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2500 | $3,195 | $1.28 | 5d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 9633 NW Saint Helens Rd Portland, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2000 | $2,895 | $1.45 | 0d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 9633 NW Saint Helens Rd Portland, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2000 | $2,895 | $1.45 | 5d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 9663 NW Saint Helens Rd Portland, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2500 | $3,195 | $1.28 | 5d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 9663 NW Saint Helens Rd Portland, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2500 | $3,195 | $1.28 | 0d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 6824 N Catlin Ave Unit A Portland, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1600 | $6,995 | $4.37 | 6d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 9831 N Edison St Portland, OR | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2056 | $3,095 | $1.51 | 31d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 7468 N Catlin Ave Unit A Portland, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1600 | $5,995 | $3.75 | 124d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 7536 N Saint Johns Ave Unit A Portland, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2224 | $2,200 | $0.99 | 32d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 7536 N Saint Johns Ave Unit A Portland, OR | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2224 | $2,200 | $0.99 | 10d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 8502 N Central St Unit 17-6 Portland, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1450 | $2,800 | $1.93 | 55d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 9707 N Smith St Unit 9707 Portland, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2100 | $2,695 | $1.28 | 87d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 7731 N Decatur St Portland, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1522 | $2,995 | $1.97 | 152d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 8018 N Oswego Ave Portland, OR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2800 | $4,700 | $1.68 | 10d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 7676 N Decatur St Unit A Portland, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2236 | $2,995 | $1.34 | 87d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 9456 N Charleston Ave Portland, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1462 | $2,395 | $1.64 | 10d | 1 | 1.47mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Condominium floor plan is townhouseNo condominium yardParking is not deeded/assigned
- HOA & community
- HOA fees $896 monthlyAssociation provides commons, exterior maintenance, insurance, grounds maintenance, management, road maintenance, sewer, trash and water45 units in complexNo assigned or deeded storage; washer/dryer included in unitRent policy: see HOANo elevator, no deck availability
Exterior
- Parking
- Driveway parking (total 1)Attached 1-car garageTandem parking available in complex
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerGas fuel
- Home design
- Residential condominium (townhouse floorplan)Not attachedBuilt in 2008Three stories totalUnit located on lower floorView facing city, mountains and river
- Construction
- Composition roofConcrete perimeter foundationCement siding constructionYear built 2008
- Exterior features
- Covered patioPorchPrivate road accessCement sidingPaved roadsCul-de-sac and private lot featuresCity, mountain and river views
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalFree-standing rangeFree-standing refrigeratorMicrowaveGranite countertopsGas appliancesStainless steel appliances
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom on lower level with ensuite bathroom, double sinks, shower, soaking tub and walk-in closetSecond bedroom on main level with bathroom access and walk-in closet
- Flooring
- Laminate flooring
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (total 2.1)
- Heating & cooling
- Forced air heating (gas)Central air conditioning
- Interior features
- Granite countersHigh ceilingsLaminate flooringFinished full basement with storage spaceSoaking tubWasher and dryer includedGas fireplace (1) with fireplace in living roomDouble-pane windows with vinyl frames
- Laundry & utility
- Washer and dryer included in unitLaundry room on lower level with built-in features and sinkGas hot water
HOA detail $992/mo · $11,904/yr
- Likely covers
- gas
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-11-08days on market $349,990 Active 191 DOM
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2026-11-07days on market $349,990 Active 190 DOM
-
2026-11-06days on market $349,990 Active 189 DOM
-
2026-11-05days on market $349,990 Active 188 DOM
-
2026-11-04days on market $349,990 Active 187 DOM
-
2026-11-02days on market $349,990 Active 185 DOM
-
2026-11-01days on market $349,990 Active 184 DOM
-
2026-10-31days on market $349,990 Active 183 DOM
-
2026-10-30days on market $349,990 Active 182 DOM
-
2026-10-29days on market $349,990 Active 181 DOM
-
2026-10-28days on market $349,990 Active 180 DOM
-
2026-10-27days on market $349,990 Active 179 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $349,990 Active 178 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $349,990 Active 177 DOM
-
2026-10-24days on market $349,990 Active 176 DOM
-
2026-10-23days on market $349,990 Active 175 DOM
-
2026-10-22days on market $349,990 Active 174 DOM
-
2026-10-21days on market $349,990 Active 173 DOM
-
2026-10-20days on market $349,990 Active 172 DOM
-
2026-10-19days on market $349,990 Active 171 DOM
-
2026-10-18days on market $349,990 Active 170 DOM
-
2026-10-17days on market $349,990 Active 169 DOM
-
2026-10-16days on market $349,990 Active 168 DOM
-
2026-10-15days on market $349,990 Active 167 DOM
-
2026-10-14days on market $349,990 Active 166 DOM
-
2026-10-13days on market $349,990 Active 165 DOM
-
2026-10-12days on market $349,990 Active 164 DOM
-
2026-10-11days on market $349,990 Active 163 DOM
-
2026-10-10days on market $349,990 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-10-09days on market $349,990 Active 161 DOM
-
2026-10-08days on market $349,990 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-10-07days on market $349,990 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-10-06days on market $349,990 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-10-05days on market $349,990 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $349,990 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-10-03days on market $349,990 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-10-02days on market $349,990 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-10-01days on market $349,990 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-09-30days on market $349,990 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-09-29days on market $349,990 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-09-28days on market $349,990 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-09-27days on market $349,990 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-09-25days on market $349,990 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-09-24days on market $349,990 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $349,990 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $349,990 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $349,990 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $349,990 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $349,990 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $349,990 Active 140 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $36,035
- − Mortgage interest
- −$19,605
- − Property taxes
- −$5,250
- − Insurance
- −$1,750
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,883
- − Management
- −$2,883
- − HOA
- −$11,904
- − Depreciation
- −$10,182
- Taxable loss
- −$18,421
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$4,421
- After-tax cash flow
- $-8,040/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $10,900–$32,700 screening
This well-maintained townhome offers a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle with spacious living areas and river views. It is ready for immediate occupancy and minor updates can further enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
- Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Skyline Elementary School
Middle
Da Vinci Middle School
High
Lincoln High School
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Portland SD 1J
- NCES district ID
- 4110040
- Math proficiency
- 46% ▼ -2.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 58% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $57,851
- Composite
- 47.1/100
- National rank
- #5112
- State rank
- #23 of 183 in OR
B
Composite livability gradescore 77/100
Livability — Portland
- Score
- 77/100
- State rank
- #72
- US rank
- #3256
Category grades
Amenities A+
Commute A+
Cost of living F
Crime F
Employment A
Housing B+
Health & safety A+
User ratings D+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Portland, OR
- County
- Multnomah · 930,825 people
- City population
- 774,334
- Metro
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Population (ZIP)
- 4,304
- Household income
- $122,063
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (Multnomah County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 930,825 people
- By 2030
- 996,904 · +7.1%
- By 2040
- 1,121,379 · +20.5%
- By 2050
- 1,242,124 · +33.4%
- By 2075
- 1,464,431 · +57.3%
- By 2100
- 1,576,181 · +69.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (81%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 81% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 7%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Salvadoran 2%
- Languages at home
- 90% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Multnomah
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+62.1) · D 79.3% · R 17.2% · Other 3.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +6.0pp toward D · 2008: 56.1pp · 2024: 62.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+62.1 2020: D+61.3 2016: D+58.3 2012: D+54.9 2008: D+56.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -120.95%
- Current HPI
- 257.6546
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 2
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 1 | $51B |
|
||
Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-04-30 Listed $359,990 RMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…