5277 Crystal Creek Dr

Pace, FL 32571

$365,000D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,736 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-171/mo
• Annual: $-2,056/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (28.2% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $262k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.