5277 Crystal Creek Dr · Pace, FL 32571

$365,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1995 0.61 ac lot Est $424k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a truly special property filled with character, space, and endless potential. Situated on over half an acre in an established neighborhood with no HOA restrictions, this 5-bedroom, 4.5-bath home offers a rare opportunity to create your dream estate while enjoying a private, peaceful setting. The backyard is a standout feature, designed for both relaxation and recreation. Enjoy summer days in the in-ground pool housed within a spacious, screened-in enclosure. A separate screened-in back porch provides another comfortable place to unwind and features a highly convenient pool-side bathroom and shower. Beyond the screened spaces, the expansive grounds offer a custom-built playground,

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Pool-side bathroom
• Charming pergola

Tags

• IN-GROUND POOL
• SCREENED-IN ENCLOSURE
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• POOL-SIDE BATHROOM
• CUSTOM-BUILT PLAYGROUND
• CHARMING PERGOLA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is not new construction
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Converted garage; Open parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Copper electrical wiring
• Home design: One-story brick home; Slab foundation; Public road access; Not attached to another property; Homesteaded
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Built on a slab; One level
• Exterior features: In-ground pool with screen enclosure; Central access lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen (cabinets and countertops replaced around 2011)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 19 by 19
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (multiple units); Central air conditioning (multiple units); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Hardwood and tile flooring; Eat-in kitchen; Resale condition
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,244 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $424,080
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5280 Crystal Creek Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,593 (-5%)	18mo	$380,000	$147	65
5015 Rendy Kay Ln	0.57mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,794 (+2%)	1mo	$753,000	$270	60
4942 Pineview Ridge Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,746 (+0%)	20mo	$465,600	$170	55
4933 Amber Way	0.09mi	4/3.5	3,097 (+13%)	23mo	$505,000	$163	53
4836 Timber Ridge Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,582 (-6%)	0mo	$357,000	$138	50
5245 English Oak Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,992 (+9%)	14mo	$442,500	$148	44
5202 English Oak Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,502 (-9%)	23mo	$407,500	$163	39
4820 Timber Ridge Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,426 (-11%)	3mo	$350,000	$144	37
5315 Willow Oak Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,578 (-6%)	20mo	$399,000	$155	36
5299 English Oak Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,992 (+9%)	22mo	$354,000	$118	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-70,929
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-79,360
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,123/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,839

Max offer price $334,728

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-68	+0% $-171	+5% $-275	+10% $-378
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-275	+0% $-171	+5% $-68	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-79	base $-171	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4816 Malay Cir Milton, FL	5.0	3.0	2593	$2,595	$1.00	21d	1	1.41mi
4624 Malay Cir Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,085	$1.17	14d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $365,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $380,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $380,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $380,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $380,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $380,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $380,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,030 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$907/yr (+$76/mo · 42.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,123
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,518
• − Management: −$2,518
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$8,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,059
• After-tax cash flow: $2/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $380,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,123 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.