480 bd · 640.0 ba ·
12,356 sqft ·
Built 1956
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 7 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$69,277/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$28,580
Tax + insurance
−$3,607
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$14,548
Net cashflow
$22,542/mo
Annual
$270,499/yr
Cap rate
11.26%
Cash-on-cash
17.73%
DSCR
1.79
1% rule
1.27%
Cash to close
$1,526,000
Investor read
This is a 20 × 24-bed/32.0-bath units multifamily listed at $5.45M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $23k ($270k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($69k rent vs $5.45M).
Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $38k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $164k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#137 in CA, #4,758 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, cost of living F.
Lemon Grove (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #389 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 118 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $4.10M; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $1.53M cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.0% in La Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $69,277/mo this rent would consume 721% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 1065% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KXBPZP8Q87PH32
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29