3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,312 sqft ·
Built 1949
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 85 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,101/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,274
Tax + insurance
−$351
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$441
Net cashflow
$35/mo
Annual
$420/yr
Cap rate
6.47%
Cash-on-cash
0.62%
DSCR
1.03
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$68,012
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $243k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($420/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (13.5% below list).
It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $210k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Ruediger Elementary School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 484 students, 72% FRL); Raa Middle School (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D+, #297 of 571 statewide, top 52%, 855 students, 49% FRL); Leon High School (math 52% / reading 60%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,935 students, 37% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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