303 Ballard St

Carl Junction, MO 64834

$135,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,412/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $295/mo
• Annual: $3,537/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#169 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carl Junction R-I (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #57 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carl Junction Primary K-1 (670 students, 37% FRL); Carl Junction Jr. High (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #99 of 391 statewide, top 26%, 501 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.2% in Carl Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.