303 Ballard St · Carl Junction, MO 64834

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Other · 6 Days on market

Built 1930 7,500 sqft lot $125/sqft · 6% below area Est $143k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a super nice home with many updates. 3 Bd, 1 Ba, CH & A, dining room. Cute kit w/ new white Cabinets & Fronts, new Refrigerator, new electric range ( could be gas also) new carpet through out, new windows, new fixtures. 1-c carport. New front porch decking. NOW has new roof!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Attached carport
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW FLOORING IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential
• Financial info: No financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 space; Attached carport with 1 space; Driveway parking
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (freestanding)
• Construction: Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built area above grade: 1,078
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; No fencing; Level topography; Lot roughly 50 x 150

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.2% in Carl Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#169 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carl Junction R-I (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #57 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carl Junction Primary K-1 (670 students, 37% FRL); Carl Junction Jr. High (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #99 of 391 statewide, top 26%, 501 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,892
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -5.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,151
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $21,237
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64834

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,039

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $333	+0% $295	+5% $257	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $239	+0% $295	+5% $351	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $329	base $295	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
623 Valley View St Carl Junction, MO	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	21d	1	0.62mi
702 Nicholas Ln Carl Junction, MO	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	44d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Active 588-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 588-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $135,000 Active 588-char remark
4. 2018-06-22
   soldstatus 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   This is a super nice home with many updates. 3 Bd, 1 Ba, CH & A, dining room. Cute kit w/ new white Cabinets & Fronts, new Refrigerator, new electric range ( could be gas also) new carpet through out, new windows, new fixtures. 1-c carport. New front porch decking. NOW has new roof!

5. 2018-06-22
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   This is a super nice home with many updates. 3 Bd, 1 Ba, CH & A, dining room. Cute kit w/ new white Cabinets & Fronts, new Refrigerator, new electric range ( could be gas also) new carpet through out, new windows, new fixtures. 1-c carport. New front porch decking. NOW has new roof!

6. 2018-06-22
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   This is a super nice home with many updates. 3 Bd, 1 Ba, CH & A, dining room. Cute kit w/ new white Cabinets & Fronts, new Refrigerator, new electric range ( could be gas also) new carpet through out, new windows, new fixtures. 1-c carport. New front porch decking. NOW has new roof!

7. 2017-10-23
   listed $68,500 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   This is a super nice home with many updates. 3 Bd, 1 Ba, CH & A, dining room. Cute kit w/ new white Cabinets & Fronts, new Refrigerator, new electric range ( could be gas also) new carpet through out, new windows, new fixtures. 1-c carport. New front porch decking. NOW has new roof!

8. 2017-10-22
   listed $68,500

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   This is a super nice home with many updates. 3 Bd, 1 Ba, CH & A, dining room. Cute kit w/ new white Cabinets & Fronts, new Refrigerator, new electric range ( could be gas also) new carpet through out, new windows, new fixtures. 1-c carport. New front porch decking. NOW has new roof!

9. 1993-10-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,310 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$627/yr (+$52/mo · 91.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$334
• After-tax cash flow: $3,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carl Junction R-I
• NCES district ID: 2907350
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,866
• Composite: 41.04/100
• National rank: #3580
• State rank: #57 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carl Junction

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #9146

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carl Junction, MO
• City population: 10,476
• Population (ZIP): 10,476

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.68%
• Current HPI: 255.1864
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+97.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-05-17 Relisted — OGAR
• 2026-05-02 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $135,000 OGAR
• 2018-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-22 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2018-06-22 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2017-10-23 Listed $68,500 SOMO
• 2017-10-22 Listed $68,500 OGAR
• 1993-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $682 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.