621 S J Hernandez St

Progreso, TX 78596

$150,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,090 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,497/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-248/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-248/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (0.2% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $161 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-876 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,184 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Progreso ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #798 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 708 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Exposed concrete roof structure
• Major: exterior — Exposed concrete foundation with no siding
• Major: interior — Exposed concrete interior walls with no drywall
• Major: flooring — Exposed concrete floors with no flooring