621 S J Hernandez St · Progreso, TX 78596

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 2025 Poor condition 2.00 ac lot $49/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a prime 2-acre plot located in a highly sought-after subdivision in Weslaco, Texas, just a short distance from the Mexico border. The property offers a fantastic opportunity for residential or investment purposes, situated in a well-established, upscale neighborhood known for its peaceful atmosphere. The land is ideal for building a custom home, ranch, or any development project, with plenty of space for future expansion. Its proximity to Mexico adds significant value, making it an excellent choice for those seeking a strategic location.

Key facts

• Upscale neighborhood
• 2 acre plot
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• 2 ACRE PLOT
• UPSCALE NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-248/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,184 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Progreso ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #798 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 708 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $161 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-876 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $471,099
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -68.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,651
• Equity at exit: $39,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,607
• Equity at exit: $43,819

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78596

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 708
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,497 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,251/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $146,346

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   This is a prime 2-acre plot located in a highly sought-after subdivision in Weslaco, Texas, just a short distance from the Mexico border. The property offers a fantastic opportunity for residential or investment purposes, situated in a well-established, upscale neighborhood known for its peaceful atmosphere. The land is ideal for building a custom home, ranch, or any development project, with plenty of space for future expansion. Its proximity to Mexico adds significant value, making it an excellent choice for those seeking a strategic location.

2. 2026-05-11
   historical Option 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   This is a prime 2-acre plot located in a highly sought-after subdivision in Weslaco, Texas, just a short distance from the Mexico border. The property offers a fantastic opportunity for residential or investment purposes, situated in a well-established, upscale neighborhood known for its peaceful atmosphere. The land is ideal for building a custom home, ranch, or any development project, with plenty of space for future expansion. Its proximity to Mexico adds significant value, making it an excellent choice for those seeking a strategic location.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $150,000 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   This is a prime 2-acre plot located in a highly sought-after subdivision in Weslaco, Texas, just a short distance from the Mexico border. The property offers a fantastic opportunity for residential or investment purposes, situated in a well-established, upscale neighborhood known for its peaceful atmosphere. The land is ideal for building a custom home, ranch, or any development project, with plenty of space for future expansion. Its proximity to Mexico adds significant value, making it an excellent choice for those seeking a strategic location.

4. 2026-04-17
   price $170,000 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   This is a prime 2-acre plot located in a highly sought-after subdivision in Weslaco, Texas, just a short distance from the Mexico border. The property offers a fantastic opportunity for residential or investment purposes, situated in a well-established, upscale neighborhood known for its peaceful atmosphere. The land is ideal for building a custom home, ranch, or any development project, with plenty of space for future expansion. Its proximity to Mexico adds significant value, making it an excellent choice for those seeking a strategic location.

5. 2026-01-14
   price $180,000 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   This is a prime 2-acre plot located in a highly sought-after subdivision in Weslaco, Texas, just a short distance from the Mexico border. The property offers a fantastic opportunity for residential or investment purposes, situated in a well-established, upscale neighborhood known for its peaceful atmosphere. The land is ideal for building a custom home, ranch, or any development project, with plenty of space for future expansion. Its proximity to Mexico adds significant value, making it an excellent choice for those seeking a strategic location.

6. 2026-01-13
   listed $234,900 Active 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   This is a prime 2-acre plot located in a highly sought-after subdivision in Weslaco, Texas, just a short distance from the Mexico border. The property offers a fantastic opportunity for residential or investment purposes, situated in a well-established, upscale neighborhood known for its peaceful atmosphere. The land is ideal for building a custom home, ranch, or any development project, with plenty of space for future expansion. Its proximity to Mexico adds significant value, making it an excellent choice for those seeking a strategic location.

7. 2025-12-09
   listed $185,000 Active
8. 2025-06-28
   status Active
9. 2025-01-22
   price $185,000
10. 2025-01-01
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$4,251
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
• − Management: −$1,437
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$642
• After-tax cash flow: $394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is in an early stage of construction and requires extensive renovation to become a move-in-ready home. Significant value can be added by building a custom home and improving the landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Exposed concrete roof structure
• Major exterior — Exposed concrete foundation with no siding
• Major interior — Exposed concrete interior walls with no drywall
• Major flooring — Exposed concrete floors with no flooring

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete exterior and interior renovation — Building a custom home with a modern design would significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Landscaping and curb appeal improvements would enhance the home's visual appeal and attract more buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Exposed concrete roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · Exposed concrete foundation with no siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior · Exposed concrete interior walls with no drywall	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Exposed concrete floors with no flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete exterior and interior renovation — Building a custom home with a modern design would significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Landscaping and curb appeal improvements would enhance the home's visual appeal and attract more buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Progreso ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835910
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,494
• Composite: 14.82/100
• National rank: #9384
• State rank: #798 of 826 in TX

Livability — Progreso

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1184
• US rank: #20721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Progreso, TX
• City population: 2,548
• Population (ZIP): 38,942

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 38% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 72%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.58%
• Current HPI: 261.5117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $150,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $170,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $180,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $234,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $185,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-06-28 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $185,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $179,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,251 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.