158 Circle Dr

Mountain City, TN 37683

$198,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2008 · Manufactured · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,587/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $54/mo
• Annual: $643/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $55,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($643/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#191 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Johnson County (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #69 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mountain City Elementary (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #219 of 952 statewide, top 24%, 436 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #107 of 333 statewide, top 33%, 284 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 643 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $198k implies a 708% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Mountain City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.