158 Circle Dr · Mountain City, TN 37683

$198,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2008 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market at no fault of the seller! Welcome to your next home in the heart of Mountain City! Located at 158 Circle Drive, this charming residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and peaceful surroundings. Situated on an adequately sized, well-maintained lot, this home immediately impresses with its inviting curb appeal, highlighted by a beautifully landscaped yard and a welcoming front entry. The level lawn provides plenty of space for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply enjoying the scenic East Tennessee setting. Step inside to discover a bright and airy living space filled with natural light. The open layout creates a warm and inviting atmosphere, perfect fo

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned residential
• HOA & community: Landscaping (association amenity)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story; Residential single-family
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Level topography; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Walk-in closet(s); Fireplace in the living room; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($643/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Mountain City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#191 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Johnson County (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #69 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mountain City Elementary (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #219 of 952 statewide, top 24%, 436 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #107 of 333 statewide, top 33%, 284 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 643 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $198k implies a 708% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $158,694 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $111,168
• Equity at exit: $178,374

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.85×
• Total profit: $324,530
• Equity at exit: $384,670

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37683

• Home prices YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,587 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $110	+0% $54	+5% $-2	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $-9	+0% $54	+5% $116	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $153	-0.5pp $104	base $54	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $198,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $198,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    status Active
17. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-25
    listed $198,000 Active
19. 2008-11-25
    soldstatus $24,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$454/yr (+$38/mo · 47.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,523
• − Management: −$1,523
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$2,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$671
• After-tax cash flow: $1,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson County
• NCES district ID: 4702160
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $31,298
• Composite: 23.58/100
• National rank: #7852
• State rank: #69 of 139 in TN

Livability — Mountain City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #15252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain City, TN
• Population (ZIP): 13,716

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,842 people
• By 2030: 16,158 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 14,682 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 13,306 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 11,087 · -34.2%
• By 2100: 9,360 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.3) · D 15.0% · R 84.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -69.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.3 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+67.3 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.22%
• Current HPI: 307.8545
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+708.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $198,000 TVRMLS
• 2008-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · +56.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.