11453 W Red Admiral St

Marana, AZ 85653

$439,990F

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,444 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-986/mo
• Annual: $-11,829/yr
• Cap rate: 3.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.39%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $125,954

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-986 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (38.9% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $269k (38.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#67 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marjorie W Estes Elementary School (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #673 of 1,109 statewide, top 61%, 570 students, 49% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 540 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.