11453 W Red Admiral St · Marana, AZ 85653

$439,990

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,444 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is ready for modern lifestyles. On the first floor, an inviting open-concept layout blends the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a secluded bedroom tucked into a private rear corner. On the second level, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living area easily accessible from four additional bedrooms and a luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 117 days

🏗️ New construction. The $439,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $449,834.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#67 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marjorie W Estes Elementary School (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #673 of 1,109 statewide, top 61%, 570 students, 49% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 540 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $266,614 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.55%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $449,834
• List price: $439,990
• Delta: -2.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11482 W Red Admiral St	0.04mi	6/3.0	2,444 (0%)	2mo	$409,990	$168	96
11501 W Red Admiral St	0.06mi	6/3.0	2,444 (0%)	2mo	$404,340	$165	95
11471 W Red Admiral St	0.02mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,126 (-13%)	0mo	$388,940	$183	70
11495 W Red Admiral St	0.05mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,126 (-13%)	3mo	$369,490	$174	66
11507 W Red Admiral St	0.07mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,126 (-13%)	3mo	$374,000	$176	65
11761 W Flying Beauty Ln	0.40mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,624 (+7%)	3mo	$483,590	$184	60
13165 N Farming Way	0.44mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,624 (+7%)	2mo	$474,642	$181	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-135,540
• Equity at exit: $67,072

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-195,280
• Equity at exit: $38,893

Cash invested: $125,954 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $479,945 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 21 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 540
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,666 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,748/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-1,002

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,935

Max offer price $304,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-692	-5% $-847	+0% $-1,002	+5% $-1,158	+10% $-1,313
Rent	-10% $-1,213	-5% $-1,108	+0% $-1,002	+5% $-897	+10% $-792
Rate	-1.0pp $-776	-0.5pp $-888	base $-1,002	+0.5pp $-1,119	+1.0pp $-1,238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,459
• Closing costs: $13,495
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11495 W Red Admiral St Marana, AZ	5.0	3.0	2126	$2,145	$1.01	21d	1	0.08mi
11904 W Farmall Dr Marana, AZ	5.0	3.0	2903	$2,600	$0.90	66d	1	0.70mi
12171 W Amarissa Dr Marana, AZ	5.0	3.5	2920	$2,490	$0.85	35d	1	0.90mi
12171 W Amarissa Dr Marana, AZ	5.0	3.5	2920	$2,490	$0.85	25d	1	0.90mi
12442 W Lilliston Way Marana, AZ	5.0	3.0	1909	$2,199	$1.15	9d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property in Marana zoning (Marana - F)
• HOA & community: Community association (CCMC)HOA covers common area maintenanceHOA fee $55 (paid quarterly)Community amenities include maintenance, park, paved streets, sidewalks and walking trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public waterSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo-storyNew constructionModel: Jeffry AFaces northAccessibility features include door levers and smart panelSmoke and carbon monoxide detectors installed
• Construction: Built by LennarFrame with stucco exteriorTile roofBuilt area approximately 2,444 (building area total)
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioBlock fencingDecorative gravelFront sprinklersNorth/South exposurePaved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherGarbage disposalRefrigeratorTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Includes bedrooms on multiple levels (two-story plan)
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioningCeiling fans pre-wired
• Interior features: Entrance foyerWalk-in closetsHigh ceilingsLow-emissivity windowsDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $439,990 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $439,990 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $439,990 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $439,990 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $439,990 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $439,990 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $439,990 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $439,990 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $439,990 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $439,990 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $439,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $439,990 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $439,990 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $439,990 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $439,990 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $439,990 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $439,990 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $439,990 Active 96 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $439,990 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $439,990 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $439,990 Active 93 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $439,990 Active 92 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $439,990 Active 91 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $439,990 Active 90 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $439,990 Active 89 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on marketlisting id $439,990 Active 88 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $439,990 Active 77 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $439,990 Active 76 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $439,990 Active 75 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $439,990 Active 73 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $439,990 Active 72 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $439,990 Active 71 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $439,990 Active 70 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $439,990 Active 69 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $439,990 Active 68 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $439,990 Active 67 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $439,990 Active 66 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $439,990 Active 64 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $439,990 Active 62 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $439,990 Active 61 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $439,990 Active 58 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $439,990 Active 57 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $439,990 Active 56 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $439,990 Active 55 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $439,990 Active 53 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $439,990 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $439,990 Active 50 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $439,990 Active 49 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $439,990 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $439,990 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,198
• − Property taxes: −$6,748
• − Insurance: −$2,249
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,559
• − Management: −$2,559
• − Depreciation: −$13,086
• Taxable loss: −$20,406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,897
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is move-in ready with modern features and a well-maintained exterior.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gladden Farms Elementary D AZ #289/1,109 Nat'l #13,933/41,679 Middle Marana Middle School F AZ #97/218 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Marana High School F AZ #210/381 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Marana

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11113

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marana, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 39,625
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property in Marana zoning (Marana - F)
• HOA & community: Community association (CCMC)HOA covers common area maintenanceHOA fee $55 (paid quarterly)Community amenities include maintenance, park, paved streets, sidewalks and walking trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public waterSewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo-storyNew constructionModel: Jeffry AFaces northAccessibility features include door levers and smart panelSmoke and carbon monoxide detectors installed
• Construction: Built by LennarFrame with stucco exteriorTile roofBuilt area approximately 2,444 (building area total)
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioBlock fencingDecorative gravelFront sprinklersNorth/South exposurePaved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherGarbage disposalRefrigeratorTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Includes bedrooms on multiple levels (two-story plan)
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioningCeiling fans pre-wired
• Interior features: Entrance foyerWalk-in closetsHigh ceilingsLow-emissivity windowsDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Price history

+8.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $439,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $439,990 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $434,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $438,940 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $432,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $436,940 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-21 Listed $434,940 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $430,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-12 Listed $404,990 Zillow