454 Michigan St

St. Paul, MN 55102

$245,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · Built 1870 · SingleFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,936/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $656/mo
• Annual: $7,873/yr
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.48%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Randolph Heights Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #180 of 857 statewide, top 23%, 437 students, 31% FRL); Hidden River Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #199 of 258 statewide, top 78%, 559 students, 61% FRL); Central Senior High (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #46 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,691 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 64% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Paul Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At $2,936/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.