3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,716 sqft ·
Built 1947
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,317/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$106
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$277
Net cashflow
$279/mo
Annual
$3,348/yr
Cap rate
8.97%
Cash-on-cash
9.56%
DSCR
1.43
1% rule
1.05%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#143 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
Round Valley Unified District (4155) (town): math 29% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #105 of 249 in AZ (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Apache County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Apache County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $125k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KZ881F3MYTTSZC
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29