33 Davis Rd

Northwest Harwinton, CT 06791

$129,900B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,990 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$368
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $821/mo
• Annual: $9,847/yr
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.07%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#102 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Regional School District 10 (rural): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 153 in CT (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Har-Bur Middle School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade B-, #61 of 175 statewide, top 35%, 653 students, 14% FRL); Lewis S. Mills High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #45 of 194 statewide, top 25%, 648 students, 12% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.