33 Davis Rd · Northwest Harwinton, CT 06791

$129,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1968 1.11 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is situated on a quiet, paved road and is being offered along with the parcel next to it. This property needs repairs or possibly is a tear down, the foundation, well and septic are there and the condition of these is unknown. There is a driveway connecting the lots. These two parcels are and close to local hiking trails, shopping, and easy highway access for commuters. The Lake Harwinton community is at the end of the street. The price reflects the condition of this property. Sold together with MLS 24177854

Key facts

• Quiet paved road
• Local hiking trails
• Easy highway access

Tags

• QUIET PAVED ROAD
• DRIVEWAY CONNECTING LOTS
• LOCAL HIKING TRAILS
• EASY HIGHWAY ACCESS
• LAKE HARWINTON COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well required for water; Septic required for sewer; Power details not specified
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation; Built / living area recorded as 1990
• Exterior features: Lightly wooded, dry lot; Wood siding; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heat (no fuel specified); No hot water
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Full basement; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#102 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Regional School District 10 (rural): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 153 in CT (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Har-Bur Middle School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade B-, #61 of 175 statewide, top 35%, 653 students, 14% FRL); Lewis S. Mills High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #45 of 194 statewide, top 25%, 648 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.07%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $419,890
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Davis Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,050 (+3%)	1mo	$690,000	$337	68
103 Whetstone Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,016 (+1%)	12mo	$425,000	$211	58
13 Old Route 72	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-13%)	10mo	$350,000	$202	44
26 Otto Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,872 (-6%)	22mo	$380,000	$203	43
92 Catlin Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,702 (-14%)	21mo	$475,000	$279	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $31,342
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $95,111
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06791

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $894	-5% $857	+0% $821	+5% $784	+10% $747
Rent	-10% $634	-5% $727	+0% $821	+5% $914	+10% $1,008
Rate	-1.0pp $886	-0.5pp $854	base $821	+0.5pp $787	+1.0pp $753

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-24
    listed $129,900 Active
17. 1990-09-18
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,765 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,765 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,765
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $8,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,013
• After-tax cash flow: $7,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 10
• NCES district ID: 0903520
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $102,988
• Composite: 54.44/100
• National rank: #1355
• State rank: #45 of 153 in CT

Livability — Northwest Harwinton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #8383

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harwinton, CT
• City population: 5,565
• Population (ZIP): 5,565

Population outlook (Northwest Hills County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 118,998

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northwest Hills

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 49.9% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.73%
• Current HPI: 257.5102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $129,900 Smart MLS
• 1990-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,765 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.