26630 Pampas Grass Ln

Katy, TX 77493

$339,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,485 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax + insurance: −$1,335
• HOA: −$183
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-1,082/mo
• Annual: $-12,987/yr
• Cap rate: 2.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.65%
• DSCR: 0.39
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $95,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $281k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4476 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 83d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 3.4% in Katy — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?