9434 Us Highway 69 S

Warren, TX 77664

$159,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,928 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,654/yr
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (20.5% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,168 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Warren ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warren H S (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 373 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Tyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tyler County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.