9434 Us Highway 69 S · Warren, TX 77664

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1984 1.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the perfect blend of convenience and country living on this 1.51 acre unrestricted property located outside the city limits. This spacious 1,928 sq. ft. home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open-concept living/kitchen/dining area designed for comfortable everyday living. A large utility room features abundant counter space and built-in shelving for exceptional storage and organization, while the oversized office/flex space provides endless possibilities for working from home, hobbies or a playroom. Relax on the covered front and back porches overlooking the beautiful property. Outside you'll find a 2-car attached carport, three outbuildings and a generously sized fenced backyard

Key facts

• Three outbuildings
• Fenced backyard
• Large utility room

Tags

• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• OVERSIZED OFFICE FLEX SPACE
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• 2 CAR ATTACHED CARPORT
• THREE OUTBUILDINGS
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Covered carport with 2 spaces; Circular driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first level living)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1984
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Porch; Deck; Storage; Shed(s); Back yard fence; Cleared and wooded lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (First level) — 14x8
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level) — 15x14; Bedroom (First level) — 12x12; Bedroom (First level) — 11x11
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (First level) — 7x6; Bathroom (First level) — 8x7
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric); Central air conditioning (Electric)
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Utility room; Office; Dining room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (First level) — 19x10

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,168 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Warren ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warren H S (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 373 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Tyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Tyler County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,354 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $33,430
• Equity at exit: $95,977

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $106,370
• Equity at exit: $170,716

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77664

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,832/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $134,646

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $159,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,832 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,832
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$4,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,061
• After-tax cash flow: $-593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844580
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,575
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5059
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Warren

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1168
• US rank: #20452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,590

Population outlook (Tyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,375 people
• By 2030: 20,036 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 19,150 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 18,017 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 15,300 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 11,702 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 4% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tyler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.5) · D 13.0% · R 86.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -73.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.5 2020: R+70.3 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+55.5 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Current HPI: 194.6701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2016-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,832 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.