45677 W Windmill Dr

Maricopa, AZ 85139

$275,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,191 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,015/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$70
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-204/mo
• Annual: $-2,447/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (26.7% below list).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maricopa Elementary School (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #631 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 733 students, 65% FRL); Maricopa Wells Middle School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #143 of 218 statewide, top 66%, 934 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 425 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.