8019 Vega Horizon

San Antonio, TX 78252

$219,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,764/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$595
• HOA: −$43
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-398/mo
• Annual: $-4,770/yr
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.75%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-398 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-4 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sun Valley El (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 650 students, 80% FRL); Francis R Scobee Middle (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 856 students, 73% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 555 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.