318 Quail Ln

Penn Valley, CA 95946

$79,999B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,345/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $1,233/mo
• Annual: $14,796/yr
• Cap rate: 25.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.61%
• DSCR: 4.10
• 1% rule: 2.93%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,129 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Penn Valley Union Elementary (town): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #253 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.8% vs local median 2.8% in Penn Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.