815 Lake Bernie Rd

Cisco, TX 76437

$135,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $754/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$158
• Net cashflow: $-202/mo
• Annual: $-2,420/yr
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $75k (44.2% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#121 in TX, #3,812 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cisco ISD (town): math 53% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #118 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cisco El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 415 students, 60% FRL); Cisco J H (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 161 students, 48% FRL); Cisco H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 234 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Eastland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eastland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Cisco — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.