815 Lake Bernie Rd · Cisco, TX 76437

$135,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors special or call it home. AS-IS land and home package. 1.48 acres total, with 1.10 acre fenced in. There are 2 separate utilities on site one of which is hooked into a 16& apos; x40& apos; cabin (electric, water, septic). Land cleared, gravel driveway, and a 20& apos; container. 18x40 Cabin that is about 90%-95% finished on the interior. All utilities are hooked into cabin. Investors - plenty of room to add multiple RV& apos; s or cabins for monthly rent! Reach out if you would like to take a look!!!

Key facts

• Separate utilities
• Fenced in
• Finished interior

Tags

• FENCED IN
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY
• FINISHED INTERIOR
• ROOM FOR RVS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2025; Single-story residence
• Construction: Living area about 720
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 1.48 acres

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $75k (44.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $75k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Cisco — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#121 in TX, #3,812 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cisco ISD (town): math 53% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #118 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cisco El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 415 students, 60% FRL); Cisco J H (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 161 students, 48% FRL); Cisco H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 234 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Eastland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Eastland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $75,395 (44.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $49,843
• Equity at exit: $110,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $154,676
• Equity at exit: $226,354

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76437

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $397/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$158
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,009

Max offer price $99,378

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-125	-5% $-163	+0% $-202	+5% $-240	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-261	-5% $-231	+0% $-202	+5% $-172	+10% $-142
Rate	-1.0pp $-134	-0.5pp $-167	base $-202	+0.5pp $-237	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $397 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,074/yr (+$173/mo · 522.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$397
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$724
• − Management: −$724
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$4,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cisco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814070
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,085
• Composite: 46.29/100
• National rank: #2478
• State rank: #118 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cisco

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #3812

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,895

Population outlook (Eastland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,433 people
• By 2030: 16,908 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 15,855 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 14,906 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 12,843 · -26.3%
• By 2100: 10,344 · -40.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 14% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Eastland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.0% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -59.8pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.4 2016: R+75.4 2012: R+68.9 2008: R+59.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.82%
• Current HPI: 167.4457
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $135,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $397 · +179.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.