4875 Topsy Rd

Gillis, LA 70611

$80,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 320 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,423/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $654/mo
• Annual: $7,846/yr
• Cap rate: 16.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.03%
• DSCR: 2.56
• 1% rule: 1.78%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#468 in LA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Calcasieu Parish (other): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 98 in LA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gillis Elementary School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #247 of 646 statewide, top 39%, 691 students, 50% FRL); Moss Bluff Middle School (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #75 of 218 statewide, top 35%, 883 students, 41% FRL); Sam Houston High School (math 46% / reading 54%, grade D+, #36 of 265 statewide, top 13%, 1,216 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,298 units permitted in Calcasieu Parish in 2024 (526 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calcasieu County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $80k implies a 700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.4% in Gillis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.