8165 Cottonwood Dr

Millerton, CA 93626

$481,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,925 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,528
• Tax + insurance: −$803
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-724/mo
• Annual: $-8,687/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $134,957

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $482k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-724 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (31.5% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($468k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $330k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clovis Unified (suburban): math 58% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #152 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary (621 students, 39% FRL); Kastner Intermediate (1,133 students, 56% FRL); Clovis West High (2,089 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.