8165 Cottonwood Dr · Millerton, CA 93626

$481,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,925 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

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Key facts

• Extra suite
• Vaulted ceiling
• Floating shelves

Tags

• EXTRA SUITE
• VAULTED CEILING
• QUARTZ CENTRAL ISLAND
• CHESTNUT BROWN CABINETRY
• MATTE BLACK PENDANT LIGHTING
• FLOATING SHELVES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $496,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Spec inventory — Aberdeen plan; Active status

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1925

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $482k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-724 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clovis Unified (suburban): math 58% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #152 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary (621 students, 39% FRL); Kastner Intermediate (1,133 students, 56% FRL); Clovis West High (2,089 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($468k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,000 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $216,447
• Equity at exit: $434,215

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $673,759
• Equity at exit: $936,401

Cash invested: $134,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93626

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,528
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$602 /mo · $7,230/yr
• Insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,216

Max offer price $377,237

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-391	-5% $-557	+0% $-724	+5% $-890	+10% $-1,057
Rent	-10% $-985	-5% $-854	+0% $-724	+5% $-594	+10% $-463
Rate	-1.0pp $-481	-0.5pp $-601	base $-724	+0.5pp $-849	+1.0pp $-976

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,498
• Closing costs: $14,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21250 Lago Bello Ln Friant, CA	4.0	3.0	2542	$3,300	$1.30	25d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $481,990 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $481,990 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $481,990 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $481,990 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $481,990 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $481,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $481,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $496,990 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $496,990 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $496,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $496,990 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $496,990 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $496,990 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $496,990 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $496,990 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $496,990 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 61 unhealthy d/yr today · 69 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,999
• − Property taxes: −$7,230
• − Insurance: −$2,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$14,022
• Taxable loss: −$17,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,175
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clovis Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609030
• Math proficiency: 58% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $71,950
• Composite: 58.7/100
• National rank: #2003
• State rank: #152 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Millerton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millerton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,039

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.30%
• Current HPI: 334.9049
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B