440 River Rd

Goodrich, TX 77335

$119,999C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,243/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$1
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $152/mo
• Annual: $1,822/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.42%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,053 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Goodrich ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,141 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.8% in Goodrich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Signs of wear
• Minor: Carpeted floors — Worn appearance
• Minor: Wallpaper — Signs of wear