440 River Rd · Goodrich, TX 77335

$119,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 217 Days on market

Built 2017 Average condition 10,349 sqft lot $86/sqft · 23% below area Est $155k · 23% under $1/mo HOA ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST REDUCED!!! Escape to this delightful 3-bed, 2-bath home in a serene neighborhood. Updates throughout the interior and a spacious kitchen island create a warm ambiance. Relax by fishing in your backyard or nearby lakes. Community perks include a pool, center, and river access. Ideal for those craving a peaceful lifestyle with outdoor leisure options.

Key facts

• Community pool
• River access
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND
• COMMUNITY POOL
• RIVER ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.8% in Goodrich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,053 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Goodrich ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,141 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $105,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.42%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,900
• List price: $119,999
• Delta: -22.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 River Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (+8%)	4mo	$149,000	$99	74
270 John Ln Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	13mo	$175,000	$120	68
238 Lakeside Ct	0.21mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,260 (-10%)	17mo	$230,000	$183	52
238 Ridgewood Rd	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (+5%)	12mo	$129,000	$88	46
411 County Rd	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,204 (-14%)	12mo	$260,000	$216	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $24,143
• Equity at exit: $53,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $72,444
• Equity at exit: $83,154

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77335

• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$1
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $119,999

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1 · $12/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,999 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,999 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,999 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,999 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,999 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,999 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,999 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,999 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,999 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,999 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,999 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,999 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,999 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,999 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,999 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $119,999 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    JUST REDUCED!!! Escape to this delightful 3-bed, 2-bath home in a serene neighborhood. Updates throughout the interior and a spacious kitchen island create a warm ambiance. Relax by fishing in your backyard or nearby lakes. Community perks include a pool, center, and river access. Ideal for those craving a peaceful lifestyle with outdoor leisure options.

17. 2026-04-09
    price $124,999 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    JUST REDUCED!!! Escape to this delightful 3-bed, 2-bath home in a serene neighborhood. Updates throughout the interior and a spacious kitchen island create a warm ambiance. Relax by fishing in your backyard or nearby lakes. Community perks include a pool, center, and river access. Ideal for those craving a peaceful lifestyle with outdoor leisure options.

18. 2025-11-13
    listed $129,999 Active 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    JUST REDUCED!!! Escape to this delightful 3-bed, 2-bath home in a serene neighborhood. Updates throughout the interior and a spacious kitchen island create a warm ambiance. Relax by fishing in your backyard or nearby lakes. Community perks include a pool, center, and river access. Ideal for those craving a peaceful lifestyle with outdoor leisure options.

19. 2025-07-05
    historical
20. 2025-06-23
    listed $130,000 Active
21. 2025-06-19
    historical
22. 2025-04-10
    price $145,000
23. 2025-02-02
    price $150,000
24. 2025-01-21
    listed $159,900 Active
25. 2024-11-10
    historical
26. 2024-06-11
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − HOA: −$12
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$94
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $1,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in average condition with cosmetic repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for an investor looking to make updates for a better return.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Signs of wear
• Minor Carpeted floors — Worn appearance
• Minor Wallpaper — Signs of wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace worn bathroom fixtures — New fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Signs of wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Carpeted floors · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Wallpaper · Signs of wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn bathroom fixtures — New fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goodrich ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821090
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,220
• Composite: 33.57/100
• National rank: #10494
• State rank: #849 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Goodrich

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #18692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,945

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $119,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $124,999 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $129,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-02 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-21 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2024-11-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Listed $159,900 HARMLS