7133 Lord Carrington Dr

Gloucester Courthouse, VA 23061

$305,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-295/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-295/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (24.7% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $230k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#150 in VA, #4,823 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Botetourt Elementary (math 66% / reading 73%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 546 students, 47% FRL); Gloucester High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,531 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $305k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Gloucester Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.